In establishing a single exponential smoothing forecasting model, a starting point for the forecast value for period 1 is required. One method for arriving at this starting point is to use the first data point as the forecast for that period. If we do that, then the first data point should be ignored when computing measures of forecast error.

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Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Using the first data point as the initial forecast means it is not a true forecast but rather a baseline, so it should be excluded from error calculations to avoid skewing the error metrics.

In Establishing a Single Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model, a Starting