Playing the lottery and overestimating your chances of winning is probably due to ________.
A) a representativeness heuristic
B) ignoring the availability heuristic
C) ignoring the base-rate rule
D) a confirmation bias

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Overestimating your chances of winning the lottery is a classic example of ignoring the base-rate rule, which is the tendency to ignore general statistical information (such as the actual odds of winning the lottery) and instead focus on specific, vivid details (such as news stories of people winning the lottery). This can lead to unrealistic expectations and poor decision-making. The other options (representativeness heuristic, ignoring the availability heuristic, and confirmation bias) may play a role in some cases, but they are not as directly relevant to this specific example.

Playing the Lottery and Overestimating Your Chances of Winning Is