Prediction markets regularly outperform political polls in predicting the winners of elections.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Prediction markets involve people placing bets on the outcome of an event, such as an election. This is different from political polls, which ask people who they plan to vote for. Prediction markets have been shown to be more accurate in predicting election outcomes because they take into account the opinions and knowledge of people who are willing to risk their own money on the outcome. In contrast, political polls can be affected by factors such as sample size, response bias, and the wording of the questions.

Prediction Markets Regularly Outperform Political Polls in Predicting the Winners