When Supreme Court Justice Blackmun heard that the prediction of violence is wrong two out of three times,he concluded that predicting violence using a coin flip would be more accurate.Why was he wrong?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Justice Blackmun was wrong because the base rate of violence in the general population is much lower than 50 percent. This means that even if predictions are incorrect two-thirds of the time, they may still be more accurate than a coin flip due to the low prevalence of actual violence.

When Supreme Court Justice Blackmun Heard That the Prediction of Violence