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Instruction 14-5
a Local Store Developed a Multiplicative Time-Series Model Y^\hat { Y }

Question 95

Multiple Choice

Instruction 14-5
A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters,using quarterly data on its revenues during the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009.The following is the resulting regression equation:
log 10 Y^\hat { Y } = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q1 - 0.054 Q2 + 0.098 Q3
Where
Y^\hat { Y } is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter
X is the coded quarterly value with X = 0 in the first quarter of 2005.
Q1 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q2 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
Q3 is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise.
-Referring to Instruction 14-5,the best interpretation of the coefficient of Q3 (0.098) in the regression equation is


A) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 25.31% higher than the average over all 4 quarters.
B) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 25.31% higher than it would be during the fourth quarter.
C) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 9.8% higher than the average over all 4 quarters.
D) the revenues in the third quarter of a year is approximately 9.8% higher than it would be during the fourth quarter.

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