Instruction 14-7 Business Closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 Were

Instruction 14-7
Business closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 were:
1993 10
1994 11
1995 13
1996 19
1997 24
1998 35
Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models,resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2^nd Order Model
Coefficients
Intercept -5.77
X Variable 1 0.80
X Variable 2 1.14
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1^st Order Model
Coefficients
Intercept -4.16
X Variable 1 1.59
-Referring to Instruction 14-7,the values of the MAD for the two models indicate that the first-order model should be used for forecasting.