Instruction 14-14
Business Closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 $\begin{array} { l l } 2005 & 10 \\2006 & 11 \\2007 & 13 \\2008 & 19 \\2009 & 24 \\2010 & 35\end{array}$

Instruction 14-14
Business closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 were:
$\begin{array} { l l } 2005 & 10 \\2006 & 11 \\2007 & 13 \\2008 & 19 \\2009 & 24 \\2010 & 35\end{array}$
Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models,resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2nd Order Model
$\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad\quad$ Coefficients
$\begin{array} { l r } \text { Intercept } & - 5.77 \\ \text { X Variable 1 } & 0.80 \\ \text { X Variable 2 } & 1.14 \end{array}$

SUMMARY OUTPUT - $1 ^ { \text {st } }$ Order Model
$\quad\quad\quad\quad$ Coefficients
Intercept $\quad - 4.16$
X Variable $1 \quad 1.59$
-Referring to Instruction 14-14,the value of the MAD for the first-order autoregressive model is ________.