At the horse racing track,a gambler bets on the wrong horse in a 10-horse field nine times in a row.Later,when talking to a friend,he said he was confident that he would pick the winner the next time,because he was "due to pick a winner." Comment on his reasoning.
A)This is false reasoning because he doesn't appear to be lucky.
B)This is false reasoning because there is no Law of Averages for independent events.
C)When there are 10 horses in a race and he has chosen the wrong horse nine times in a row,he statistically should pick a winner the next time.
D)If he doesn't pick the winning horse the next time,he will shortly after that.
E)None of the above apply.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The gambler's reasoning is based on the false assumption that past events can influence future outcomes in independent events like picking the winning horse in each race. The Law of Averages does not apply in this case, and each race is a separate event with its own outcome, regardless of previous results. Therefore, the gambler's confidence in picking the winner of the next race is unfounded.

At the Horse Racing Track,a Gambler Bets on the Wrong