You Are the Treasurer of Arizona Corporation and Must Decide $\begin{array}{cc}\text { Future Spot Rate } & \text { Probability } \\\$ .46 & 20 \% \\\$ .48 & 30 \% \\\$ .52 & 50 \%\end{array}$

You are the treasurer of Arizona Corporation and must decide how to hedge (if at all) future receivables of 350,000 Australian dollars (A$) 180 days from now. Put options are available for a premium of $.02 per unit and an exercise price of $.50 per Australian dollar. The forecasted spot rate of the Australian dollar in 180 days is:
$\begin{array}{cc}\text { Future Spot Rate } & \text { Probability } \\\$ .46 & 20 \% \\\$ .48 & 30 \% \\\$ .52 & 50 \%\end{array}$

The 90-day forward rate of the Australian dollar is $.50.
What is the probability that the put option will be exercised (assuming Arizona purchased it) ?

A) 0%.
B) 80%.
C) 50%.
D) none of the above