Prior to estimating the number of people attending a concert, Edward was asked whether there were more or fewer than 1,000 people and Ellen was asked if there were more or fewer than 4,000 people. Edward's estimate of the number of people was much less than Ellen's estimate, suggesting their estimates were influenced by use of the _____.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Edward and Ellen were likely influenced by the anchor of the initial questions they were asked (i.e. whether there were more or fewer than 1,000 and 4,000 people). This suggests they were using the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, where they started with an initial number and adjusted their estimate from there. The representativeness heuristic involves judging the likelihood of an event based on how well it fits a stereotype or prototype, which is not applicable in this scenario. The conjunction fallacy involves mistakenly believing that two specific events are more likely to occur together than either event alone, which is also not applicable in this scenario. The availability heuristic involves judging the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind, which is not mentioned in the scenario.

Prior to Estimating the Number of People Attending a Concert