A town committee learns that there is a strong negative correlation between the number of centimetres of daily rainfall and the number of children who use the neighborhood playgrounds each day. If the committee were to conclude that high rainfall is caused by children not using the playground, which type of problem would MOST likely be occurring?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The committee is assuming that high rainfall is causing children not to use the playground, when in fact it is more likely that the reverse is true: the rain is keeping children indoors and away from the playground. This is an example of confusion between the direction of correlation (which is negative) and the direction of causation (which likely goes from rain to playground use, rather than the other way around).

A Town Committee Learns That There Is a Strong Negative