If you are familiar with national statistics showing that 95% of students with your qualifications eventually end up with a tenured position, but you still feel like your own chances of tenure are slim, which of the following might best describe your decision processes?
A) Failure to adequately adjust from an initial anchor
B) Ignoring base-rate information
C) Conjunction fallacy
D) None of the above

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

This scenario describes ignoring base-rate information, where the individual overlooks statistical, general information (95% of students with similar qualifications get tenured positions) in favor of subjective judgment or specific instances.

If You Are Familiar with National Statistics Showing That 95