If someone says "You're sure to get into a top law school; you were ranked first in our class in college!", what mistake has this person made?
A) Ignoring the predictive value
B) Ignoring the sample size
C) Ignoring the base rate
D) Both A and C

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The person has ignored the base rate, which is the overall percentage of applicants who get into top law schools. Being ranked first in the college class may be impressive, but without considering the base rate, it's difficult to determine the likelihood or probability of getting into a top law school. Ignoring the predictive value is not entirely relevant in this scenario as the person has made a statement that assumes good prediction. Sample size is also not relevant as it is not known how many people were in this college class or the law school applicant pool.

If Someone Says "You're Sure to Get into a Top