A pharmaceutical company manufacturing pregnancy test kits wants to determine the probability of a woman not being pregnant when the test results indicate pregnancy.It is estimated that the probability of pregnancy among potential users of the kit is 10%.According to the company laboratory test results 1 out of 100 non-pregnant women tested pregnant (false positive).On the other hand,1 out of 200 pregnant women tested non-pregnant (false negative).A woman has just used the pregnancy test kit manufactured by the company and the results showed pregnancy.What is the probability that she is not pregnant?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The probability of a false positive is calculated using Bayes' theorem. Given the probabilities: P(Pregnant) = 0.1, P(Not Pregnant) = 0.9, P(Test Positive | Not Pregnant) = 0.01, and P(Test Positive | Pregnant) = 0.995. The probability that a woman is not pregnant given a positive test result is approximately 8.3%.

A Pharmaceutical Company Manufacturing Pregnancy Test Kits Wants to Determine