Students were amazed when Professor Diaz walked into class on the first day of the semester and correctly "sensed" that two people in his class of 23 were born on the same day. The tendency to think that it is very unlikely that two people in a class of 23 could share the same birthday is an example of the:
A) belief-bias effect.
B) confirmation bias.
C) fallacy of positive instances.
D) overestimation effect.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The overestimation effect refers to the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of rare events, such as the probability of two people sharing a birthday in a small group. In reality, the probability is higher than most people intuitively believe.

Students Were Amazed When Professor Diaz Walked into Class on the First