Imagine a game show on television where one lucky contestant is presented with four upside-down buckets that are numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4. Under one of the buckets is a $100 bill. Under each of the other three buckets is a $10 bill. After the game ends, the contestant will receive the amount of money that is under his or her bucket.
The host of the game show asks the contestant to choose one of the four buckets. After the contestant makes a choice, the host lifts one of the remaining three buckets to reveal a $10 bill under it. At this point, three buckets remain uncovered: the bucket that the contestant originally chose and the two buckets that were not uncovered by the host.
The host subsequently asks the contestant if he or she would like to keep the original bucket or change buckets to one of the two other buckets remaining.

-If 25 consecutive tosses of a fair coin have all been heads, some individuals tend to think that the next one "must be tails." This is an example of the:

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The belief that the next coin toss "must be tails" because the previous 25 tosses were heads is an example of the gambler's fallacy. This is the mistaken belief that the outcome of a random event is influenced by previous outcomes, even when the events are statistically independent and the probabilities remain the same. Each coin toss has a 50/50 chance of being either heads or tails, regardless of the outcomes of previous tosses.

Imagine a Game Show on Television Where One Lucky Contestant