The television game show Let's Make a Deal provides a well-known example of the difficulties in assessing probabilities accurately. At the end of the show, the host, Monty Hall, asks the contestant to choose one of three curtains. Behind each curtain is one of three possible prizes: a car, a nice but less expensive item, or a worthless joke item. Suppose that you pick curtain 1. The host, who knows what is behind the curtains, opens a different one, say, curtain 3, which has a pen filled with bunny rabbits-the joke prize. The host then offers you the opportunity to switch your choice to curtain 2. If you would prefer the car over any other prize, should you switch? Does your probability of winning the car change if you switch to curtain 2?

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The Answer of The television game show Let's Make a Deal provides a well-known example of the difficulties in assessing probabilities accurately. At the end of the show, the host, Monty Hall, asks the contestant to choose one of three curtains. Behind each curtain is one of three possible prizes: a car, a nice but less expensive item, or a worthless joke item. Suppose that you pick curtain 1. The host, who knows what is behind the curtains, opens a different one, say, curtain 3, which has a pen filled with bunny rabbits-the joke prize. The host then offers you the opportunity to switch your choice to curtain 2. If you would prefer the car over any other prize, should you switch? Does your probability of winning the car change if you switch to curtain 2?

The Television Game Show Let's Make a Deal provides a Well-Known