Consider a two-factor HJM model where the initial forward curve is given as 6% for one year and 7% between one and two years. The evolution of continuously-compounded one-year forward rates beginning at time , is given by the following binomial process with two shock terms: , where the forward rate movements are equiprobable. What this means is that the forward rate may move up by either 0.02 with probability 1/4, or move down by 0.02 with probability 1/4, or remain the same with probability 1/2. What is the risk-neutral drift ( ) for ?
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Correct Answer:
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