A midwife conducted a Bayesian analysis of stork numbers and declining birth rates. She calculated a Bayes factor of 1. Should she use stork numbers to predict birth rates?
A) No, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that although declining stork numbers appear to coincide with declining birth rates it is not 'worth mentioning' and other factors may be at work.
B) Yes, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that it is worth trying to increase stork numbers in order to increase the birth rate.
C) No, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that the data is corrupted.
D) Yes, a Bayes factor of 1 suggests that it is worth heavily investing in reducing stork numbers in order to reduce the birth rate.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

A Bayes factor of 1 suggests that there is no evidence to support the hypothesis that stork numbers are a predictor of declining birth rates. Therefore, it is not advisable to use stork numbers to predict birth rates. Other factors may be at play, and more data is needed to make a stronger case for any correlation between stork numbers and birth rates.

A Midwife Conducted a Bayesian Analysis of Stork Numbers and Declining