Which of the following is the least useful time-series forecasting model when there is a strong upward trend in the data?
A)Estimated exponential trend model
B)A five-period centered moving average
C)Exponential smoothing with a high α
D)Regression model with trend and seasonal binaries

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

A centered moving average will be less useful in forecasting when there is a strong upward trend because it will smooth out the peaks and valleys of the trend instead of capturing its upward trajectory. The other models listed (exponential trend model, exponential smoothing with high alpha, and regression model with trend and seasonal binaries) are designed to capture trends and would likely be more useful in this scenario.

Which of the Following Is the Least Useful Time-Series Forecasting