An adolescent is told that a person riding the bus is reading the New York Times. The adolescent is asked if the person is more likely to have no college degree or if the person is more likely to have a Ph.D. The adolescent responds that the person is more likely to have a Ph.D. The correct answer, however, is that the person is more likely to have no college degree. The adolescent has experienced _____.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The adolescent is neglecting the base rate, which is the statistical likelihood of an event based on prior knowledge or general information. In this case, the base rate is that a random person riding the bus is more likely to have no college degree than to have a Ph.D. The adolescent is focusing on the specific information given (reading the New York Times) and ignoring the base rate. This is an example of base rate neglect.

An Adolescent Is Told That a Person Riding the Bus