Morris Polling conducted a poll 6 months before an election in a state in which a Democrat and a Republican were running for governor and found that 80% of the voters intended to vote for the Republican and 20% intended to vote for the Democrat. In a poll conducted 3 months later, it was found that 60% of those who had earlier stated a preference for the Republican candidate still maintained that preference, whereas 40% of these voters now preferred the Democratic candidate. Of those who had earlier stated a preference for the Democrat, 70% still maintained that preference, whereas 30% now preferred the Republican candidate.
If the election were held at this time, who would win?

Assuming that this trend continues, which candidate is expected to win the election?

A) Democrat would win now, Republican after 3 months
B) Republican would win now, Democrat after 3 months
C) Democrat would win now, Democrat after 3 months
D) Republican would win now, Republican after 3 months

Question

Morris Polling conducted a poll 6 months before an election in a state in which a Democrat and a Republican were running for governor and found that 80% of the voters intended to vote for the Republican and 20% intended to vote for the Democrat. In a poll conducted 3 months later, it was found that 60% of those who had earlier stated a preference for the Republican candidate still maintained that preference, whereas 40% of these voters now preferred the Democratic candidate. Of those who had earlier stated a preference for the Democrat, 70% still maintained that preference, whereas 30% now preferred the Republican candidate. ​
If the election were held at this time, who would win?
​
Assuming that this trend continues, which candidate is expected to win the election?
​
A) Democrat would win now, Republican after 3 months
B) Republican would win now, Democrat after 3 months
C) Democrat would win now, Democrat after 3 months
D) Republican would win now, Republican after 3 months

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

According to the poll conducted 3 months before the election, 48% of the voters intended to vote for the Republican candidate (80% * 60% = 48%) and 12% intended to vote for the Democratic candidate (80% * 40% = 32% + 20% * 30% = 12%). Therefore, the Republican candidate would win at this time. 
If this trend continues, it is expected that more voters will shift their preferences to the Democratic candidate, and therefore the Democratic candidate would win after 3 months.

Morris Polling Conducted a Poll 6 Months Before an Election