A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: The mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)for the end of May is
A)0.0250.
B)0.0583.
C)0.5830.
D)0.6670.

Question

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:  The mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)for the end of May is
A)0.0250. 
B)0.0583. 
C)0.5830. 
D)0.6670.

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

To calculate the MAPD, we need to find the absolute percent deviation (APD) for each forecast and then take the average of those APDs.

The APD for the end of May is: 
| (115 - 105)/110 | x 100% = 9.09%
| (145 - 140)/143 | x 100% = 3.50%
| (155 - 150)/153 | x 100% = 3.27%

Average APD = (9.09% + 3.50% + 3.27%) / 3 = 5.62%

Therefore, the MAPD is 0.0562 or 5.62%. The closest choice is B, 0.0583.

A Forecasting Model Has Produced the Following Forecasts: the Mean