Question 1

Which of the following students provides the most accurate information about the research on overconfidence?

Accepted Answer

Solange's statement is accurate because research on overconfidence has indeed shown that it is a widespread phenomenon affecting various cognitive tasks beyond just decision making.

Question 2

According to the framing effect,

Accepted Answer

The framing effect suggests that the way information is presented (the "frame" in which it is communicated) can significantly influence decision-making and judgment. This means that the phrasing, context, or presentation of information can affect people's choices and perceptions, as highlighted in option D.

Question 3

Jeff is concerned that the framing effect may be influencing his decision to study abroad next semester. According to Chapter 12, an effective way to correct for the framing effect is to

Accepted Answer

The answer of Jeff is concerned that the framing effect...

Question 4

Researchers such as Gerd Gigerenzer argue that people create a wide variety of heuristics that generally help them make adaptive decisions in the real world-a point of view referred to as

Accepted Answer

Gerd Gigerenzer's research focuses on how people use simple heuristics in decision-making, a concept known as ecological rationality. This perspective emphasizes that these heuristics are well-suited or adapted to the structure of the environment, thus enabling effective decision-making in real-world situations.

Question 5

Suppose you have a friend who is just beginning college, and she plans to go to school half-time. She estimates that she will earn her bachelor's degree in about 7 years, rather than 8 years. It is most likely that she

Accepted Answer

The planning fallacy is a phenomenon where people underestimate the time it will take to complete a task. In this scenario, the friend is likely underestimating the time it will take to earn her bachelor's degree by planning to complete it in 7 years instead of the more typical 8 years for half-time students, thus falling victim to the planning fallacy.

Question 6

If a researcher wants to conduct a study on the framing effect, which of the following would be the most likely topic for the study?

Accepted Answer

The framing effect refers to how people react differently to a choice depending on how it is presented, such as whether a discount is framed as a dollar amount off or a percentage off. Choice D directly addresses this by questioning how the presentation (framing) of a price reduction influences consumer perception, making it the most relevant topic for a study on the framing effect.

Question 7

Suppose that a politician is drafting her position paper on the educational situation in her district. She is trying to decide whether she should say, "If we adopt Plan A, we estimate that 10% of our students will drop out of high school before graduating." Alternately, she might say, "If we adopt Plan A, we estimate that 90% of our students will graduate from high school." She would probably find that her audience responds differently to these two versions of her talk, because of

Accepted Answer

The difference in audience response is due to the framing effect, where the way information is presented (as either positive or negative) can influence perceptions and decisions.

Question 8

Imagine that your professor is discussing the prevalence of psychological disorders in the general population, and he says, "A study conducted in 2012 estimated that about 11% of the population has a psychological disorder at any one time." If you were to estimate a confidence interval, based on this number-11%-you would be most likely

Accepted Answer

The correct answer is C because when estimating a confidence interval based on a given percentage (11% in this case), people tend to rely too heavily on the initial value (the anchor) and often do not adjust sufficiently away from that anchor to account for variability or uncertainty, leading to a narrower confidence interval than might be appropriate.

Question 9

A group of fantasy football players are discussing the previous weekend's games, which included a season-ending injury to a top player. Kat is heard to say, "I knew that quarterback was going to get injured eventually. He can't get rid of the ball quickly enough, so he's always getting sacked." Kat is probably being influenced by

Accepted Answer

Kat's statement is a classic example of hindsight bias, where she believes, after the event has occurred, that she knew it was going to happen all along.

Question 10

Suppose that you are working as an industrial/organizational psychologist for a company. You've determined that the employees tend to be too confident about sales decisions that later turn out to be unwise. Remembering what you learned in your cognitive psychology course, your wisest decision would be to

Accepted Answer

The crystal-ball technique is a method used to challenge overconfidence by asking decision-makers to imagine that a perfectly clear crystal ball has determined their decision to be wrong, and then to explain why this might happen. This encourages them to consider and evaluate potential flaws in their decision-making process, which can help in reducing overconfidence.

Question 11

Suppose that you are watching television just after a Congressional election, and your favorite candidate has won-although the election was close. You say to a friend, "Well, I was really quite confident that he would win." This might be an example of

Accepted Answer

This is an example of the hindsight bias, which is the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that one would have predicted or expected the outcome. Saying you were confident your candidate would win after the fact is a classic example of feeling like you "knew it all along" once the results are known.

Question 12

In the hindsight bias,

Accepted Answer

Hindsight bias refers to the tendency of people to overestimate their ability to have predicted an outcome that could not possibly have been predicted. It is often summarized by the phrase "I knew it all along."

Question 13

According to the research on the reasons for overconfidence,

Accepted Answer

Research on overconfidence has shown that one reason for this cognitive bias is that individuals often have difficulty recalling alternative hypotheses or explanations for events, leading them to overestimate the accuracy of their own beliefs or predictions.

Question 14

According to the research on overconfidence,

Accepted Answer

Research on overconfidence has shown that it is a widespread phenomenon affecting not just the general population but also specific groups such as politicians. This suggests that overconfidence is not limited to certain contexts or tasks but is a general cognitive bias that can influence various aspects of decision-making and judgment.

Question 15

Suppose that you hear someone say, "I don't care how many days I am sick; I just care how many days I am well." Which of the following concepts from decision making would be most relevant to this statement?

Accepted Answer

The framing effect is relevant here because the person's focus on days well rather than days sick demonstrates how the presentation or framing of a situation can influence decision-making and perception.

Question 16

At midterm, a college determines that 300 of its students are at risk for suspension this semester. Its tutoring center argues that, with a series of targeted emails encouraging students to come in for help, it can promise to certainly save 100 of those students from suspension. However, an external firm approaches the college with an offer to start a new program, with a 1/3 chance of preventing all 300 students from being suspended (and a 2/3 chance of saving none of these students). Under which circumstances is the college most likely to hire the external firm?

Accepted Answer

The answer of At midterm, a college determines that 300...

Question 17

Suppose that you are having a serious argument with a friend, and you are convinced that your own perspective is correct. According to the discussion in Chapter 12, this situation is an example of

Accepted Answer

The situation described is an example of my-side bias, which occurs when individuals evaluate evidence, generate evidence, and test hypotheses in a manner biased toward their own opinions and attitudes.

Question 18

The research on the framing effect suggests that

Accepted Answer

The framing effect refers to the phenomenon where people's decisions are influenced by how information is presented to them, such as the wording of a question or the context provided, rather than just the information itself.

Question 19

Because of a recently passed law, in Oregon, everyone who gets a driver's license or state identification card is automatically registered to vote; they must choose to "opt out" if they do not wish to be registered. In most states, a person must take steps to register to vote. In the future, if voting statistics show that significantly more Oregonians than other U.S. citizens are registered to vote, we might say that this is a good example of the _______ heuristic in action.

Accepted Answer

The correct answer is the default heuristic, which refers to the tendency for people to stick with a given option when it is presented as the default choice. In this case, Oregonians are automatically registered to vote when they get a driver's license or state ID, making registration the default option, which likely increases registration rates.

Question 20

According to the research on prospect theory,

Accepted Answer

Prospect theory suggests that people are more likely to take risks when faced with potential losses, as they weigh losses more heavily than equivalent gains.

Quiz 12: Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making