Question 1

How do the lessons of history influence decision making?
A)The lessons of history always lead to bad decisions.
B)Decision makers carefully review history to discover the relevant lessons and apply those lessons that are most pertinent, leading to optimal decision making.
C)Decision makers view their current problems in light of only a few historical events and are unable to conduct a broad, open-minded search for the historical lessons that apply best to any particular circumstance.
D)History does not influence decision making.

Accepted Answer

Decision makers often focus on a limited set of historical events, which can restrict their ability to apply the most relevant lessons to current situations.

Question 2

What is confirmation bias? What impact does confirmation bias have on foreign policy making? Under which circumstances is confirmation bias most likely to occur?

Accepted Answer

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Question 3

How can psychology help us to understand foreign policy decision making? How is the application of psychology to foreign policy decision making limited?

Accepted Answer

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Question 4

The discomfort that results when a new piece of information does not fit with existing beliefs is known as which of the following?
A)Shirking
B)Positivity bias
C)Status quo bias
D)Cognitive dissonance

Accepted Answer

Cognitive dissonance refers to the mental discomfort that arises from holding two conflicting beliefs, values, or attitudes, especially when new information challenges existing beliefs.

Question 5

In international relations, where does confirmation bias seem to be especially prominent?
A)Alliances
B)Antagonistic relationships
C)Intergovernmental organizations
D)The bureaucracy

Accepted Answer

Confirmation bias is especially prominent in antagonistic relationships because parties involved tend to favor information that confirms their preexisting perceptions or prejudices against the opposing side, often leading to escalated tensions and misunderstanding.

Question 6

The concept in which leaders will take risks in order to protect what they have is known as which of the following?
A)Status quo bias
B)Unmotivated bias
C)Cognitive dissonance
D)Bolstering

Accepted Answer

Status quo bias refers to the preference to keep things the same or maintain a current or previous decision. It often involves taking risks to protect existing conditions or decisions from change.

Question 7

Why was Pakistan outraged at the U.S. killing of Osama bin Laden?
A)Pakistan was an ally and staunch supporter of bin Laden.
B)Pakistan was disgusted with the large number of civilian deaths that accompanied the SEAL team raid.
C)The U.S. sought Pakistan's assistance in the raid and the U.S. was successful without them.
D)Pakistan was embarrassed that bin Laden was living in one of its cities and that the U.S. government did not trust Pakistan enough to share intelligence on the matter.

Accepted Answer

Pakistan was embarrassed because the operation to kill Osama bin Laden was carried out unilaterally by the United States without Pakistani knowledge or cooperation. This incident highlighted the fact that bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, a military city in Pakistan, raising questions about Pakistan's knowledge and complicity. The lack of trust from the U.S. to share intelligence or coordinate with Pakistan prior to the raid was a significant source of embarrassment and outrage for the Pakistani government.

Question 8

Discuss the assumptions of the bureaucratic politics model of decision making. What are the model's main strengths and weaknesses? Are you convinced that it helps us to understand why foreign policy decisions are made?

Accepted Answer

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Question 9

What does one important finding of prospect theory suggest about individuals?
A)Individuals are more willing to take risks to achieve a gain than to avoid a loss.
B)Individuals are unable to make a rational decision in a moment of crisis.
C)Individuals never waver from cost-benefit analysis.
D)Individuals are more willing to take risks to avoid a loss than to achieve a gain.

Accepted Answer

Prospect theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, suggests that people value gains and losses differently, leading to risk-averse behavior when considering potential gains and risk-seeking behavior when trying to avoid losses. This means individuals are more likely to take risks to avoid a loss than to achieve a gain.

Question 10

What are the sources of misperception in foreign policy decision making? What are some strategies to avoid the pitfalls of making a decision based on misperceptions?

Accepted Answer

The answer of What are the sources of misperception in...

Question 11

Which of the following statements about the study of psychology holds true?
A)Psychology allows us to make clear predictions about foreign policy decision making.
B)Psychology adds little to our understanding of foreign policy decision making.
C)Psychology does not provide clear predictions in the real world of foreign policy.
D)Psychology has failed to explain why foreign policy makers often seem to deviate from rational decision making.

Accepted Answer

Psychology, while offering insights into human behavior and decision-making processes, often faces challenges in providing clear, definitive predictions, especially in complex and dynamic areas such as foreign policy. This is due to the multitude of variables and the unpredictability of human behavior in such contexts.

Question 12

Having friends or parents state early in the process of your college selection that a particular college is inappropriate might cause you to exclude that college without much thought. This is an example of what concept in action?
A)Bolstering
B)Groupthink
C)Utility theory
D)Cognitive dissonance theory

Accepted Answer

Groupthink occurs when a group's desire for harmony or conformity results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. In this scenario, the influence of friends or parents can lead to the exclusion of a college without thorough consideration, reflecting the pressure to conform to the group's opinion.

Question 13

Describe the influence of the three branches of U.S. government on U.S. foreign policy. Which one is most influential, and why?

Accepted Answer

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Question 14

If President Obama obtained information that did not support his decision to continue negotiations with Iran over their alleged nuclear weapons program, and he dismissed that information as irrelevant, this would be an example of which concept?
A)Bolstering
B)Motivation
C)Unmotivated bias
D)Confirmation bias

Accepted Answer

Dismissing information that does not support one's pre-existing beliefs or decisions, while favoring information that does, is a classic example of confirmation bias. This cognitive bias involves focusing on evidence that confirms one's beliefs and ignoring evidence that contradicts them.

Question 15

When does bolstering occur?
A)A decision maker attempts to convince themselves that they made the right choice after an agonizing decision.
B)The legislative branch shows strong support for a foreign policy decision.
C)A small group of decision makers looks to a group leader for a decision.
D)A decision maker knows they made the wrong decision but works to convince themselves that it was the right one.

Accepted Answer

Bolstering occurs when a decision maker tries to convince themselves that they made the right choice after an agonizing decision, often by focusing on the positive aspects of the decision and downplaying any negatives.

Question 16

What motivated many of the leaks surrounding the raid on bin Laden's Pakistani compound?
A)The desire to stress President Obama's role in the successful raid
B)Chelsea Manning's role in the Wikileaks affair
C)The congressional investigation into the military operation
D)The need for transparency in secret operations

Accepted Answer

The motivation behind many of the leaks regarding the raid on bin Laden's Pakistani compound was to highlight President Obama's involvement and leadership in the successful operation. This was part of an effort to showcase the administration's foreign policy and national security accomplishments.

Question 17

What are the main assumptions of prospect theory and how well does it explain foreign policy decision making?

Accepted Answer

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Question 18

Does groupthink always occur when there is a strong leader? Consider how Donald Trump makes foreign policy and discuss the possible implications when the opposite of groupthink occurs.

Accepted Answer

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Question 19

Given the emphasis on the status quo by prospect theory, which of the following is most likely true?
A)In international trade, actors may find it easier to agree on how to share the losses than on how to distribute the gains from trade.
B)In international trade, actors may find it easier to come to a trade agreement in which both sides equally gain.
C)In international trade, actors may find it easier to agree on how to distribute the benefits from a trade agreement than on how to share the losses.
D)In international trade, actors may find it easier to walk away from a trade deal when it is clearly not in their favor.

Accepted Answer

Prospect theory suggests that people are more sensitive to losses than to gains, which implies that actors may find it easier to agree on distributing benefits rather than sharing losses.

Question 20

Since leaders seek to avoid psychological stress after making a decision, leaders hope to convince themselves that the decision actually was the correct one. What is this psychological concept called?
A)Appeasement
B)Rationalization
C)Contingency planning
D)Bolstering

Accepted Answer

Bolstering is the psychological concept where leaders convince themselves that their decision was correct to avoid stress and doubt.

Quiz 6: Bureaucracies, Groups, and Individuals in the Foreign Policy Process

How do the lessons of history influence decision making?

What is confirmation bias? What impact does confirmation bias have on foreign policy making? Under which circumstances is confirmation bias most likely to occur?

How can psychology help us to understand foreign policy decision making? How is the application of psychology to foreign policy decision making limited?

The discomfort that results when a new piece of information does not fit with existing beliefs is known as which of the following?

In international relations, where does confirmation bias seem to be especially prominent?

The concept in which leaders will take risks in order to protect what they have is known as which of the following?

Why was Pakistan outraged at the U.S. killing of Osama bin Laden?

Discuss the assumptions of the bureaucratic politics model of decision making. What are the model's main strengths and weaknesses? Are you convinced that it helps us to understand why foreign policy decisions are made?

What does one important finding of prospect theory suggest about individuals?

What are the sources of misperception in foreign policy decision making? What are some strategies to avoid the pitfalls of making a decision based on misperceptions?

Which of the following statements about the study of psychology holds true?

Having friends or parents state early in the process of your college selection that a particular college is inappropriate might cause you to exclude that college without much thought. This is an example of what concept in action?

Describe the influence of the three branches of U.S. government on U.S. foreign policy. Which one is most influential, and why?

If President Obama obtained information that did not support his decision to continue negotiations with Iran over their alleged nuclear weapons program, and he dismissed that information as irrelevant, this would be an example of which concept?

When does bolstering occur?

What motivated many of the leaks surrounding the raid on bin Laden's Pakistani compound?

What are the main assumptions of prospect theory and how well does it explain foreign policy decision making?

Does groupthink always occur when there is a strong leader? Consider how Donald Trump makes foreign policy and discuss the possible implications when the opposite of groupthink occurs.

Given the emphasis on the status quo by prospect theory, which of the following is most likely true?

Since leaders seek to avoid psychological stress after making a decision, leaders hope to convince themselves that the decision actually was the correct one. What is this psychological concept called?