An American Hedge Fund is considering a one-year investment in an Italian government bond with a one-year maturity and a euro-denominated rate of return of i€ = 5%. The bond costs €1,000 today and will return €1,050 at the end of one year without risk. The current exchange rate is €1.00 = $1.50. U.S. dollar-denominated government bonds currently have a yield to maturity of 4%. Suppose that the European Central Bank is considering either tightening or loosening its monetary policy. It is widely believed that in one year there are only two possibilities:
Following revaluation, the exchange rate is expected to remain steady for at least another year.
-Find the ex post IRR in euro for the American firm if they buy the bond today and then the exchange rate rises to S1($|€)= $1.80 per €.
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