Question 1

A simple index is obtained by dividing the current value of a time series by the value of a time series in the _____ time period and by multiplying this ratio by 100.

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Question 2

In the multiplicative decomposition method,the _________ moving average provides an estimate of TR_t × CL_t

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Question 3

The basic difference between MAD and MSD is that MSD,unlike MAD,penalizes a forecasting technique much more for _____ errors.

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Question 4

Periodic patterns in time series that repeat themselves within a calendar year or less are referred to as _____.

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Question 5

When deseasonalizing time series observations,we divide the actual time series observation by its ___________.

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Question 6

Weighting in exponential smoothing is accomplished by the use of a _____.

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Question 7

The Durbin-Watson statistic is used to detect _____.

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Question 8

Although the ________ index allows us to compare each period to the base period,it is difficult to compare the index at other points in time.

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Question 9

The Laspeyres index and the Paasche index are both examples of _________ aggregate price indexes.

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Question 10

The recurring up-and-down movement of a time series around trend levels that last more than one calendar year is called _____.

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Question 11

The _______________ index is most useful if the base quantities provide a reasonable representation of consumption patterns in succeeding time periods.

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Question 12

The _____ test is a test for first-order positive autocorrelation.

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Question 13

When preparing a price index based on multiple products,if the price of each product is weighted by the quantity of the product purchased in a given period of time,the resulting index is called a ___________ price index.

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Question 14

If a time series exhibits increasing seasonal variation,one approach is to first use a ______________ transformation that produces a transformed time series that exhibits constant seasonal variation.

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Question 15

The upward or downward movement that characterizes a time series over a period of time is referred to as _____.

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Question 16

A simple index is computed by using the values of one time series,while the _______ index is based on a "representative shopping basket" consisting of more than one time series.

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Question 17

When using simple exponential smoothing,the more recent the time series observation,the _________ its corresponding weight.

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Question 18

The purpose behind moving averages and centered moving averages is to eliminate season variations and _________.

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Question 19

A positive autocorrelation implies that negative error terms will be followed by _________ error terms.

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Question 20

A forecasting method that weights recent observations more heavily is called _____.

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Quiz 16: Time Series Forecasting