Question 1

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend and the weekend before that. On the basis of this, Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions. Solomon is working on a problem of

Accepted Answer

Solomon is observing specific instances and trying to come up with a generalization or pattern, which is the process of induction. Deduction involves starting with general principles and drawing specific conclusions, while confirmation involves gathering evidence to support a pre-existing hypothesis. Derivation is not a relevant term in this context.

Question 2

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

Accepted Answer

Option B does not contain a trigger that leads to the use of statistical knowledge. While personal importance may increase motivation, it does not necessarily require the use of statistical reasoning. Options A, C, and D all involve triggers that can lead to the use of statistical knowledge.

Question 3

When thinking about the likelihood of events, humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as _____ than as _____.

Accepted Answer

Humans are generally better at understanding and making judgments based on frequencies (how often something happens) rather than probabilities (the chance of something happening), because frequencies are more concrete and easier to visualize.

Question 4

According to the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1987), people are _____ when dealing with potential losses, but are _____ when dealing with potential gains.

Accepted Answer

The answer of According to the work of Tversky and...

Question 5

Which of the following statements about the effects of emotion on decision making is NOT true?

Accepted Answer

The statement that people assume the worst and are thus overly cautious is not necessarily true. While it may be true in some situations, people can also be overly optimistic and take risks despite potential negative outcomes. Therefore, this statement is not a universal truth about the effects of emotion on decision making.

Question 6

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

Accepted Answer

This is an example of a categorical syllogism, which is a deductive argument consisting of three parts: the major premise, the minor premise, and the conclusion. In this case, the major premise is "all rectangles have four sides" and the minor premise is "all squares have four sides," which lead to the conclusion that "all rectangles are squares." However, this conclusion is incorrect because not all rectangles are squares; only those rectangles with equal sides are also squares. This mistake is a common type of logical error known as the fallacy of affirming the consequent, which occurs when the truth of the conclusion is assumed from the truth of the premises without considering other possibilities.

Question 7

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Accepted Answer

The answer of You are reading a political blog and...

Question 8

Which of the following is correct regarding dual-process models?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Which of the following is correct regarding...

Question 9

The four-card task provides an example of how

Accepted Answer

The four-card task is a classic example of how humans struggle with conditional reasoning. Many people make the mistake of only considering the card with the letter on one side, rather than taking into account the information on the other side of the card. This leads to incorrect conclusions and demonstrates our tendency towards flawed conditional reasoning.

Question 10

The expected value of an option is dependent on

Accepted Answer

The expected value of an option is the sum of the product of the probability of each outcome and the utility (or payoff) of that outcome. This formula takes into account both the likelihood and desirability of each outcome, making B the correct choice.

Question 11

Background knowledge can lead to mistakes, but it can also provide a benefit if

Accepted Answer

If the background knowledge is about how the parts of the problem are related, it can provide a benefit by helping the person understand the problem and recognize patterns. However, if the person is not aware of heuristics, overly confident in their knowledge, or the background knowledge only contains descriptive information, it may lead to mistakes.

Question 12

Evidence from the four-card task suggests all of the following EXCEPT that

Accepted Answer

The answer of Evidence from the four-card task suggests all...

Question 13

Training in statistics

Accepted Answer

Training in statistics can improve the ability to make judgments so that judgment errors will be less likely. This is a well-established benefit of statistical training. The other options are not accurate.

Question 14

Brenda is terribly afraid of flying because she is certain the plane will crash. You know that the chances of a plane crash are exceedingly small and try to explain this to her. Given your knowledge of judgment and reasoning, describe the factors (i.e., judgment errors) that are contributing to her fear and give any tips that could help her overcome her fear.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Brenda is terribly afraid of flying because...

Question 15

Compare and contrast System 1 and System 2 reasoning. Include in your discussion the benefits and drawbacks to each system, the instances in which each system would be used, and how changing the data format can lead to changes in use.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Compare and contrast System 1 and System...

Question 16

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is MOST LIKELY to be true? You will:

Accepted Answer

Using base rate information is important in making accurate predictions, so it is likely that the rater will use the 30% pass rate as a starting point for their evaluation of Steve's likelihood of passing the exam.

Question 17

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Accepted Answer

The law of large numbers is often misunderstood or ignored by individuals in certain contexts, while in other situations, they might intuitively understand and respect its implications. This inconsistency can depend on the specific scenario, the presentation of data, or the individual's background knowledge in statistics.

Question 18

Studies indicate that training in statistics

Accepted Answer

The answer of Studies indicate that training in statistics
...

Question 19

Marissa believes that clowns are evil. She meets two men who are very nice and then learns that they are clowns. Despite this, she does not adjust her belief and continues to think clowns are evil. This is called

Accepted Answer

Marissa's failure to adjust her belief about clowns, despite encountering evidence that goes against it, is an example of belief perseverance. This is the persistence of an initial belief, even in the face of evidence to the contrary, often due to cognitive biases and heuristics. Confirmation bias (A) refers to the tendency to seek out and favor information that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs, rather than information that challenges them. Deductive reasoning (B) involves reasoning from general principles to specific conclusions, whereas inductive reasoning (C) involves reasoning from specific observations to general principles. Neither deductive nor inductive reasoning fully capture the cognitive mechanism at play in Marissa's situation.

Question 20

An inductive judgment is one in which a person

Accepted Answer

An inductive judgment begins with specific facts or observations and seeks to draw a general conclusion from them. This is in contrast to a deductive judgment, which starts with a general statement and draws a conclusion about a specific case. Inductive reasoning is often used in scientific investigations to develop hypotheses and theories based on empirical evidence.

Quiz 11: Judgment and Reasoning

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend and the weekend before that. On the basis of this, Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions. Solomon is working on a problem of

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

When thinking about the likelihood of events, humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as _ than as _.

According to the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1987) , people are _ when dealing with potential losses, but are _ when dealing with potential gains.

Which of the following statements about the effects of emotion on decision making is NOT true?

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Which of the following is correct regarding dual-process models?

The four-card task provides an example of how

The expected value of an option is dependent on

Background knowledge can lead to mistakes, but it can also provide a benefit if

Evidence from the four-card task suggests all of the following EXCEPT that

Training in statistics

Compare and contrast System 1 and System 2 reasoning. Include in your discussion the benefits and drawbacks to each system, the instances in which each system would be used, and how changing the data format can lead to changes in use.

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is MOST LIKELY to be true? You will:

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Studies indicate that training in statistics

Marissa believes that clowns are evil. She meets two men who are very nice and then learns that they are clowns. Despite this, she does not adjust her belief and continues to think clowns are evil. This is called

An inductive judgment is one in which a person

Quiz 11: Judgment and Reasoning

Solomon remembers how Jacob acted last weekend and the weekend before that. On the basis of this, Solomon is trying to figure out whether there is a pattern to Jacob's actions. Solomon is working on a problem of

Nisbett has argued that participants do understand the basic principles of statistics but often fail to use their knowledge. Which of the following situations does NOT contain one of the triggers that leads to the use of statistical knowledge?

When thinking about the likelihood of events, humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as _____ than as _____.

According to the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1987) , people are _____ when dealing with potential losses, but are _____ when dealing with potential gains.

Which of the following statements about the effects of emotion on decision making is NOT true?

"All rectangles have four sides. All squares have four sides. Therefore all rectangles are squares." This incorrect statement is an example of

You are reading a political blog and come across the following sentiment: "Politicians are liars. John Doe is a politician. Therefore, John Doe is a liar." You are most likely to judge this as logical if you

Which of the following is correct regarding dual-process models?

The four-card task provides an example of how

The expected value of an option is dependent on

Background knowledge can lead to mistakes, but it can also provide a benefit if

Evidence from the four-card task suggests all of the following EXCEPT that

Training in statistics

Compare and contrast System 1 and System 2 reasoning. Include in your discussion the benefits and drawbacks to each system, the instances in which each system would be used, and how changing the data format can lead to changes in use.

You are asked to rate how likely it is that a student, Steve, will pass an upcoming exam. You are told that, in the past, the "pass" rate for this exam is 30%. Which of the following statements about your rating is MOST LIKELY to be true? You will:

The law of large numbers implies that larger samples of data are less likely to show accidental patterns; therefore, larger samples are generally more informative. In making judgments about evidence, participants

Studies indicate that training in statistics

Marissa believes that clowns are evil. She meets two men who are very nice and then learns that they are clowns. Despite this, she does not adjust her belief and continues to think clowns are evil. This is called

An inductive judgment is one in which a person

When thinking about the likelihood of events, humans are better able to make judgments based on information presented as _ than as _.

According to the work of Tversky and Kahneman (1987) , people are _ when dealing with potential losses, but are _ when dealing with potential gains.