Question 1

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-A variable whose value cannot be predicted or set with certainty is a
A) discrete variable
B) random variable
C) realistic variable
D) simulation variable
Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

A variable whose value cannot be predicted or set with certainty is a random variable.

Question 2

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. The 95% confidence interval of the mean is the interval (81.77, 83.41). Of the 100 simulation outcomes, 65 outcomes failed to fall within this interval. What is wrong with the confidence interval?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 3

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-The spreadsheet model for Sal, from Exhibit 12.5, has been run 300 times to produce the following output. What is the best case scenario for Sal based on this output?  Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 4

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-Sal, from Exhibit 12.5, has produced the following spreadsheet to compute confidence intervals on his income. What formula should go in cell B12 to compute the upper limit on a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion below 90%?  Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 5

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What function should be used for generating random numbers from a normal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 6

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-A machine produces an average of 500 parts per day with a standard deviation of 10 parts. This is a normally distributed variable. The percent of defective parts ranges from 8-12%. Parts which need minor repair comprise 75% of the defective parts and cost $5 to repair. The rest of the defective parts cost $20 to repair. What formulas should go in cells B8:B15 to compute the daily cost of defective parts?  Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 7

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What function should be used for generating random integer numbers between 2 and 8?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 8

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What function should be used for generating random numbers from a normal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ between the values of a and b only?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 9

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-Jim Johnson operates a bus service to take college students to "The Big City" on Friday night and bring them back to school on Sunday night. The bus has 45 seats but sometimes there are empty seats. His records show that about 5% of ticket holders do not show up for their ride. Tickets cost $20 and are non-refundable. If Jim overbooks the bus and more than 45 passengers show up, some of them will be bumped and have to miss the trip. This bumping costs the company $40 because Jim has a double-your-money back policy for bumped passengers. Jim wants to see what happens to profits if 48 reservations are accepted.  What formulas should go in cell C10 − C15 of the worksheet?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information...

Question 10

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What is the expected number of phone calls per hour based on the following distribution on the number of phone calls per hour?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 11

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-Why would a manager be interested in analyzing risk?
A) To determine a most likely outcome.
B) To determine a range of outcomes.
C) To determine a distribution of outcomes.
D) To determine a confidence interval on most likely outcomes.

Accepted Answer

A manager would be interested in analyzing risk to determine the distribution of outcomes, which can help identify the likelihood of different scenarios and inform decision-making. Options A and D are not as relevant to analyzing risk, while option B only partially addresses the issue.

Question 12

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. What is the 95% confidence interval on the proportion of simulations whose outcomes exceeded a value of 100?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 13

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-University Florists makes bouquets from a variety of materials. The Daily Special Bouquet is priced at $20. The florist assembles this bouquet each day from a variety of low cost flowers he buys from his flower supplier. The actual cost of flowers ranges uniformly from $2 to $7, with all intermediate values being equally likely. The florist (who studied management science many years ago) knows that the time to assemble a bouquet is normally distributed with a mean time of 5 minutes and standard deviation of 1 minute. This will be the time required for all of the Daily Special Bouquets for that day. The florist values his labor time at $10 per hour. Sales are normally distributed with a mean of 10 bouquets per day with a standard deviation of 1 bouquet. What formulas should go in cells B8:B14 to simulate daily profits for the store?  Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 14

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What function should be used for generating random numbers from the following distribution on the number of phone calls per hour?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 15

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66. Of the 100 replications, 11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100. What is the 90% confidence interval on the mean?
Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information...

Question 16

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What is the probability that 3 or more phone calls are received in any hour of operation?  Instructions: Answer the following questions using the Analytic Solver Platform Excel add-in.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 17

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-Sal, from Exhibit 12.5, has produced the following spreadsheet to compute confidence intervals on his income. What formula should go in cell B8 to compute the upper limit on a 95% confidence interval for the true population mean?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 18

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation. He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month. He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%. The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5. The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month. You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.  
-What gallery distribution should be used for generating the number of times "tails" come up over 15 flips of a "fair" coin?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 19

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3, what formula should go in cell J8 to determine the arrival date for an order?
A) =IF(I8=0,0,A8+I8)
B) =IF(I8=0,0,A8+1+I8)
C) =IF(I8=1,0,A8+1+I8)
D) =IF(I8=0,A8+1+I8,0)

Accepted Answer

The formula should add 1 to the order date (cell A8) and the shipping time (cell I8) if there is an order pending (cell H8 is not 0). If there is no order pending, the arrival date should be 0. Therefore, the correct formula is =IF(I8=0,0,A8+1+I8).

Question 20

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil. The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil. A case of oil generates a $10 profit. Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders (the company loses the sale and profit). The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases. Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day. An average service level of 99% is desired. The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem. The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system. The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.   
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3, what formula should go in cell G9 to compute inventory position?
A) =G8+E9-IF(H8=1,$D$4,0)
B) =G8-E9+IF(H8=1,$D$4,0)
C) =G8-E9+IF(H8=1,$D$5,0)
D) =G8-E9+IF(H8=1,0,$D$4)

Accepted Answer

The inventory position is the current on-hand inventory plus any inventory on order minus the maximum of zero and the forecasted demand. This means that the formula should be =G8-E9+IF(H8=1,$D$4,0), which is option B.

Quiz 12: Introduction to Simulation Using Analytic Solver Platform