Imagine a game show on television where one lucky contestant is presented with four upside-down buckets that are numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4. Under one of the buckets is a $100 bill. Under each of the other three buckets is a $10 bill. After the game ends, the contestant will receive the amount of money that is under his or her bucket.
The host of the game show asks the contestant to choose one of the four buckets. After the contestant makes a choice, the host lifts one of the remaining three buckets to reveal a $10 bill under it. At this point, three buckets remain uncovered: the bucket that the contestant originally chose and the two buckets that were not uncovered by the host.
The host subsequently asks the contestant if he or she would like to keep the original bucket or change buckets to one of the two other buckets remaining.

-Suppose a student tosses a fair coin consecutively ten times and gets tails each time. If the student concludes that the next toss will be heads because heads "is due," the student has committed the:

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The student has committed the gambler's fallacy by assuming that future outcomes are affected by past outcomes. Each coin toss is an independent event and the probability of getting heads on the next toss is still 50%.

Imagine a Game Show on Television Where One Lucky Contestant