Table 14-5
The following data consists of a matrix of transition probabilities (P)of three potential diseases, and the initial incidence of each disease π(0).Assume that each state represents a disease (Disease 1, Disease 2, Disease 3, respectively)and the transition probabilities represent changes from one checkup to the next.
P =

π(0)= (.3, .3, .4)
-Using the data in Table 14-5, determine Disease 1's estimated incidence in the next period.
A)0.32
B)0.34
C)0.36
D)0.38

Question

Table 14-5
The following data consists of a matrix of transition probabilities (P)of three potential diseases, and the initial incidence of each disease π(0).Assume that each state represents a disease (Disease 1, Disease 2, Disease 3, respectively)and the transition probabilities represent changes from one checkup to the next.
P =  
 
π(0)= (.3, .3, .4)
-Using the data in Table 14-5, determine Disease 1's estimated incidence in the next period.
A)0.32 
B)0.34 
C)0.36 
D)0.38

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Disease 1's incidence in the next period is estimated to be 0.32, which is the value in the "Incidence" column for Disease 1 in Table 14-5.

Table 14-5 The Following Data Consists of a Matrix of Transition Probabilities