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Commercial Real Estate Analysis
Quiz 9: Measuring Investment Performance: The Concept of Returns
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Question 1
Multiple Choice
A seller has offered you a $1,000,000 interest-only 5 year loan at 6% (annual payments) , when market interest rates on such loans are 8%. Basing your decision on market values, how much more should you be willing to pay for the property than you otherwise think it is worth, due to the financing offer?
Question 2
Multiple Choice
Which of the following is true about typical real estate investment (unlevered, at the direct property level) and inflation risk?
Question 3
Multiple Choice
All of the following are true about the "property before-tax (PBT) shortcut", except*:
Question 4
Multiple Choice
The NOI is $40,000; there are $5,000 in tenant improvement expenditures paid for by the landlord; there is a $200,000 interest-only loan at 8 percent annual interest; the depreciable cost basis of this residential property is $300,000; the owner's tax bracket is 33 percent. What is the Equity After-Tax Cash Flow (EATCF) ?
Question 5
Multiple Choice
Which statement is true ex ante?
Question 6
Multiple Choice
Suppose you analyze a particular deal and it appears that for an investment of $1,000,000 your client can obtain a positive NPV of over $500,000. Your client is typical of the type of high tax bracket individual investors who commonly purchase and sell this type of property, and indeed typically determine equilibrium prices in the asset market in which these properties are sold. What should you do?
Question 7
Essay
The table below shows two 10-year cash flow projections (in $ millions, including reversion) for the same property. The upper row is the projection that will be presented by the broker trying to sell the building, the bottom row is the realistic expectations. Suppose that it would be relatively easy for any potential buyers to ascertain that the most likely current market value for the property is about $10 million. What is the most likely amount of "disappointment" in the ex post annual rate of total return earned by an investor who buys this property believing the broker's cash flow projection?
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Presert
$
1.00
$
1.03
$
1.06
$
1.09
$
1.12
$
1.15
$
1.19
$
1.22
$
1.26
$
14.7
ted
00
00
09
27
55
93
41
99
68
439
Realist
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
11.0
ic
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
000
\begin{array} { | l | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | } \hline \text { Year } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 & \mathbf { 8 } & 9 & 10 \\\hline \text { Presert } & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.03 & \$ 1.06 & \$ 1.09 & \$ 1.12 & \$ 1.15 & \$ 1.19 & \$ 1.22 & \$ 1.26 & \$ 14.7 \\\text { ted } & 00 & 00 & 09 & 27 & 55 & 93 & 41 & 99 & 68 & 439 \\\hline \text { Realist } & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 11.0 \\\text { ic } & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 000 \\\hline\end{array}
Year
Presert
ted
Realist
ic
1
$1.00
00
$1.00
00
2
$1.03
00
$1.00
00
3
$1.06
09
$1.00
00
4
$1.09
27
$1.00
00
5
$1.12
55
$1.00
00
6
$1.15
93
$1.00
00
7
$1.19
41
$1.00
00
8
$1.22
99
$1.00
00
9
$1.26
68
$1.00
00
10
$14.7
439
$11.0
000
(a) 0.00% (b) 1.00% (c) 3.00% = Presentation IRR - Realistic IRR = (10% + 3%) - (10% + 0%) = 13% - 10%. (d) 26.68%
Question 8
Multiple Choice
You are trying to apply a multi-year DCF analysis to evaluate an investment property with some long-term leases in it. You observe that other properties with similar lease structure and risk have been selling at cap rates around 11% (based on NOI with no capital reserve) . You believe these other properties typically face capital expenditures on the order of 1% of property value per year in the long run, and that given such expenditures their net cash flows and values would reasonably be expected to grow in the long run at about 3% per year. What discount rate should you apply to your subject property in your DCF valuation?
Question 9
Multiple Choice
Normally, what relation should be most common between the expected "going-in" and expected "going-out" cap rate?
Question 10
Multiple Choice
Assuming riskless debt, if the return risk is ±15% with a 40% Loan/Value Ratio, then with a 80% Loan/Value Ratio the return risk is:
Question 11
Multiple Choice
After-tax cash flow will exceed before-tax cash flow whenever:
Question 12
Essay
The table below shows the projected cash flows (including reversion) for Property A and Property B. If both properties sell at fair market value for a cap rate (initial and terminal cash yields) of 8%, then which statement below correctly describes the relative investment risk in the two properties?
Aruual net cash flow projections for two properties ($ millions)
Y
e
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
a
r
A
$
1.00
$
1.03
$
1.06
$
1.09
$
1.12
$
1.15
$
1.19
$
1.22
$
1.26
$
18
00
00
09
27
55
93
41
99
68
10
B
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
1.00
$
13
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
50
\begin{array}{l}\text { Aruual net cash flow projections for two properties (\$ millions) }\\\begin{array} { | l | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | r | } \hline \mathrm { Ye } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 & \mathbf { 8 } & 9 & 10 \\\mathrm { ar } & & & & & & & & \\\hline \mathrm { A } & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.03 & \$ 1.06 & \$ 1.09 & \$ 1.12 & \$ 1.15 & \$ 1.19 & \$ 1.22 & \$ 1.26 & \$ 18 \\& 00 & 00 & 09 & 27 & 55 & 93 & 41 & 99 & 68 & 10 \\\hline \mathrm { B } & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 1.00 & \$ 13 \\& 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 00 & 50 \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}
Aruual net cash flow projections for two properties ($ millions)
Ye
ar
A
B
1
$1.00
00
$1.00
00
2
$1.03
00
$1.00
00
3
$1.06
09
$1.00
00
4
$1.09
27
$1.00
00
5
$1.12
55
$1.00
00
6
$1.15
93
$1.00
00
7
$1.19
41
$1.00
00
8
$1.22
99
$1.00
00
9
$1.26
68
$1.00
00
10
$18
10
$13
50
(a) Property A is more risky. (A's going-in IRR = 8% + 3% = 11% = rf + RPA > rf + RPB = 8% = 8% + 0% = B's going-in IRR.) (b) Property B is more risky. (c) Both properties are equally risky.
Question 13
Multiple Choice
A non-residential commercial property which cost $500,000 is considered to have 30 percent of its total value attributable to land. The annual depreciation expense chargeable against taxable income is: