Contract requirements state that a project must be completed within 180 working days, or it will incur penalties for late completion. Analysis of the activity network reveals an estimated project time of 145 working days with a project variance of 400. What is the probability that the project will be completed before the late-payment deadline?
A) 0.04006
B) 0.45994
C) 0.80511
D) 0.95994
E) near 1.00000, or almost certain

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

To calculate the probability that the project will be completed before the late-payment deadline, we use the formula for the Z score in project management: $Z = \frac{D - TE}{\sqrt{V}}$, where $D$ is the deadline (180 days), $TE$ is the estimated project time (145 days), and $V$ is the project variance (400). Plugging in the numbers: $Z = \frac{180 - 145}{\sqrt{400}} = \frac{35}{20} = 1.75$. Looking up the Z score of 1.75 in the standard normal distribution table gives a probability of approximately 0.95994, indicating the project has a 95.994% chance of being completed before the deadline.

Contract Requirements State That a Project Must Be Completed Within