Lauren got an A on her math test, better than she expected based on her SAT math score of 500 and her C average in math courses overall. She said, "Wow, I am really getting better at math. I think I am a B math student now." Lauren has MOST likely made the thinking error of _____ while judging her math ability.
A) misuse of the availability heuristic
B) believing in the law of large numbers
C) committing the conjunction fallacy
D) ignoring regression to the mean

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Lauren's high score on her math test is most likely due to regression to the mean, which means that extreme scores are likely to be followed by scores that are closer to the individual's typical level of performance. It is unlikely that Lauren has suddenly become a B math student based on one high score, given her SAT math score and average in math courses overall. Therefore, ignoring regression to the mean is the thinking error she is most likely making.

Lauren Got an a on Her Math Test, Better Than