Two teammates on a soccer team, Lindsay and Reyha, had similar shooting averages that were better than the league average. In the semi-final championship game, Lindsay had scored especially well. At the beginning of the final game, Lindsay was again shooting very well, and the coach told the team to pass to Lindsay as much as possible because she was "hot"; however, in the last half of the game, Lindsay's shooting fell below her average, while Reyha's shooting rose above her average. The problem with the coach's advice was that the coach did not realize that:
A) Lindsay was much more likely to score than Reyha because Lindsay was having a good shooting streak that should not have been interrupted.
B) Lindsay was obviously more motivated to perform well in the tournament (she "wanted it more").
C) the girls' scores were regressing to their means, both girls' ended up with similar shooting averages and similar chances of scoring.
D) a person can not predict a player's shooting from the shooting average of the player.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The coach made the mistake of assuming that Lindsay's hot streak would continue for the entire game and that Reyha's shooting would stay the same. However, both players' shooting averages were similar and had been better than the league average, indicating that their scores were likely to regress to their means. Therefore, it would have been better for the team to continue to distribute the ball evenly among all players rather than focusing solely on Lindsay.

Two Teammates on a Soccer Team, Lindsay and Reyha, Had