Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:
A) committing the conjunction fallacy, which is biasing his estimate of probability.
B) hindsight bias based on the outcome of the last four tosses.
C) misunderstanding randomness and independent events and using the representativeness heuristic.
D) illusory correlation and his knowledge that on the last four tosses he got the same result, leading him to experience confirmation bias.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Haru's incorrect judgment is related to his misunderstanding of randomness and independent events, which he is using the representativeness heuristic to resolve. This is because he assumes that the probability of getting a head must increase after getting tails four times in a row, when in reality, each coin toss is an independent event with a 50/50 chance of heads or tails regardless of previous outcomes.

Haru Was Tossing a Fair Coin and Had Gotten Tails