A basketball coach noticed that one of his players had sunk three 3-point shots in a row before the final shot in a game. The final shot, however, was taken and missed by a second player. For the final shot, both players were open, but the team passed the ball to the second player, who had a better shooting average than the first. The coach felt regret that he had not told the players to pass the ball to the first player, who was obviously on a shooting streak. The BEST analysis of randomness and representativeness in the game's final shot is that:
A) the coach should have encouraged the players to pass to the player with the "hot hand."
B) the player with the best shooting average should have taken the shot, as he did.
C) the coach should have advised the players to pass the ball to a new player, who was fresh from the sidelines.
D) the coach should have used the hindsight bias to recognize that the player with the "hot hand" could not make a fourth basket.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The final shot should have been taken by the player with the best shooting average. This is because shooting streaks are not reliable indicators of future performance and may be due to chance rather than skill. The coach should not have based the decision on the player's previous successful shots but on their overall performance throughout the game. As such, passing the ball to the player with the best shooting average was the most rational decision.

A Basketball Coach Noticed That One of His Players Had