There is no fail-safe recipe for winning a presidential election. However, social scientists have developed sophisticated prediction models. Highlight some of the factors they look at in determining who the next president is likely to be.
Explain how the models generally look at the economy as the most important factor in a candidate's chances.
Discuss how they also look at the popularity of the current president.
Describe how they look at the length of time the current party has held the White House (one party has controlled the White House for more than two successive terms just once in the past sixty years).
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