I believe that there is an $80 \%$ chance that I will get the promotion. The day before my supervisor tells me that he has "valuable" information about the chance that I get promoted. He tells me that there is an $80 \%$ chance that I will get the promotion. My supervisor's forecast was valuable because it contained new information.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The signal confirmed my original belief and thus added no new information.

I Believe That There Is An 80%80 \%80% Chance That I Will Get the Promotion

I Believe That There Is An $80 \%$ Chance That I Will Get the Promotion