Angelo Fibers is considering a project with an up-front cost of $250,000. The project's subsequent cash flows critically depend on whether its products become the industry standard. There is a 50 percent chance that the products will become the industry standard, in which case the project's expected cash flows will be $110,000 at the end of each of the next five years. There is a 50 percent chance that the products will not become the industry standard, in which case the project's expected cash flows will be $25,000 at the end of each of the next five years. Assume that the cost of capital is 12 percent.
Now assume that one year from now Angelo will know if its products will have become the industry standard. Also assume that after receiving the cash flows at t = 1, the company has the option to abandon the project. If it abandons the project it will receive an additional $100,000 at t = 1, but will no longer receive any cash flows after t = 1. Assume that the abandonment option does not affect the cost of capital. What is the estimated value of the abandonment option?
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