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An ESP experiment is done in which a participant guesses which of 4 cards the researcher has randomly picked, where each card is equally likely. This is repeated for 200 trials. The null hypothesis is that the subject is guessing, while the alternative is that the subject has ESP and can guess at higher than the chance rate.
-The subject actually gets 70 correct answers. Which of the following describes the probability represented by the p-value for this test?
A) The probability that the subject has ESP
B) The probability that the subject is just guessing.
C) The probability of 70 or more correct guesses if the subject has ESP.
D) The probability of 70 or more correct guesses if the subject is guessing at the chance rate.

Question

Use the following information for questions:
 An ESP experiment is done in which a participant guesses which of 4 cards the researcher has randomly picked, where each card is equally likely. This is repeated for 200 trials. The null hypothesis is that the subject is guessing, while the alternative is that the subject has ESP and can guess at higher than the chance rate.
-The subject actually gets 70 correct answers. Which of the following describes the probability represented by the p-value for this test?
A) The probability that the subject has ESP
B) The probability that the subject is just guessing.
C) The probability of 70 or more correct guesses if the subject has ESP.
D) The probability of 70 or more correct guesses if the subject is guessing at the chance rate.

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The p-value represents the probability of observing the test results, or more extreme, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. In this case, it's the probability of getting 70 or more correct guesses if the subject is just guessing (chance rate).

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