People tend to fall subject to the impact bias (and not understand that they will usually successfully reduce cognitive dissonance) because reducing cognitive dissonance is

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Reducing cognitive dissonance is largely an unconscious process. People tend to automatically adjust their attitudes or beliefs to reduce the internal conflict caused by the dissonance. The impact bias refers to the tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of emotional reactions to future events. Even though people may experience some discomfort or pain when their beliefs or attitudes are challenged, the automatic and largely unconscious nature of cognitive dissonance reduction means that people are often successful in resolving the dissonance without much conscious effort.

People Tend to Fall Subject to the Impact Bias (And