Question 1

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.After running a multiple regression model,he obtains the following report.What is the best interpretation of these statistics? Regression Statistics

A) The probability that the number of eggs is correctly predicted by the amount of scratch, layer pellets, and water consumed is 99.36%.
B) The prediction of the amount of eggs is 98.7% accurate based on the amount of scratch, layer pellets, and water consumed.
C) 98.7% of the variability in egg production is explained by the amount of water, scratch, and layer pellets consumed.
D) The prediction of the amount of eggs is 99.36% accurate based on the amount of scratch, layer pellets, and water consumed.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics...

Question 2

McMahon and Tate advertising company is interested in an appropriate mix of print,radio,and television ads for their new client.Darrin Stevens performs a multiple regression on the effects of dollars spent on each type of media on dollars of sales of product.Darrin uses data from the most recent advertising campaigns and develops the following equation: y = 254,215 + 6.79 × Print - 1.4 × Radio + 16.87 × Television
The r-squared statistic is 0.77.Which of the following statements is best?
A) At a minimum, the client will sell $254,215 worth of product after the new advertising campaign.
B) At a maximum, the client will sell $254,215 worth of product after the new advertising campaign.
C) This equation will be of no use in predicting the amount of sales based on advertising in these media.
D) The client should spend more money on television advertising than on radio advertising.

Accepted Answer

The coefficient for television advertising (16.87) is higher than that for radio (-1.4), suggesting that spending more on television ads is likely to increase sales more effectively than spending on radio ads.

Question 3

A well-educated lumberjack decides to use linear regression to predict the demand for firewood based on the ambient temperature.He has collected data on firewood sales and temperature for the last several days and has performed some preliminary calculations as shown in the table.What is his regression equation based on the data? 
A) Ricks = 50.6 - 0.93 × Temp
B) Temp = 53.3 - 1.0 × Ricks
C) Ricks = 0.93 - 50.6 × Temp
D) Temp = 1.0 - 53.3 × Ricks

Accepted Answer

Based on the given data, the regression equation for predicting firewood sales (Ricks) based on temperature is: 
Ricks = 50.6 - 0.93 × Temp 
This is because the slope of the regression line (i.e., the coefficient for temperature) is negative (-0.93), indicating an inverse relationship between temperature and firewood sales. The intercept is 50.6, which represents the predicted value of firewood sales when the temperature is zero (which is not applicable in this case, but is still useful for interpreting the equation). Therefore, choice A is the correct regression equation for this data.

Question 4

Using the data in the table,first plot the data and comment on the appearance of the demand pattern.Then develop a forecast for periods 51-70 that fits the data.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Using the data in the table,first plot...

Question 5

Multiple regression was used to forecast success in college (GPA)based upon SAT score,high school GPA,and hours spent on-line.Use the regression output shown and comment on the overall fit of the model,the usefulness of each independent variable,and the value to an admissions department of using the model to make admission decisions.What is the model's forecast for an applicant having a high school GPA of 2.5 and an SAT score of 1000 that spends 20 hours a week on-line? What other variables do you feel would make good indicators of college GPA?

Accepted Answer

The answer of Multiple regression was used to forecast success...

Question 6

Heidi runs a multiple regression for the output of cheese curds by using the daily temperature and the consumption of sweet clover.The intercept term is 23,the slope coefficient for the daily temperature is 1.5 and the slope coefficient for the consumption of sweet clover is 0.Which of these conclusions is most appropriate?
A) Heidi should collect more data.
B) The most important term in Heidi's model is the intercept.
C) As the daily temperature rises, the intercept term probably decreases.
D) Heidi should drop the sweet clover term from her model.

Accepted Answer

Since the slope coefficient for the consumption of sweet clover is 0, it is not contributing to the prediction of the output of cheese curds. Therefore, it is appropriate to drop this term from the model to simplify it and improve its accuracy.

Question 7

Which of these quantitative techniques is a causal model?
A) linear regression
B) last period
C) exponential smoothing
D) weighted moving average

Accepted Answer

Linear regression is a causal model as it establishes a cause-and-effect relationship between the independent variable(s) and the dependent variable. It helps in understanding how changes in the independent variable(s) affect the dependent variable. The other techniques listed are not causal models and do not establish a cause-and-effect relationship.

Question 8

The forecast data matches the actual data perfectly if the mean absolute deviation is 0.0.

Accepted Answer

Mean absolute deviation (MAD) measures the average difference between the forecasted values and the actual values. A MAD of 0.0 means that there is no difference between the forecasted and actual values, implying a perfect match. Therefore, the statement is true.

Question 9

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.After running a multiple regression model,he obtains the following report.What is the best interpretation of these statistics? 
A) For every egg produced, about 0.185 ounces of scratch must be consumed.
B) The standard error for the model intercept is as large as the coefficient, thus the intercept is the most important predictor of egg production.
C) Layer pellets are not good predictors of egg production because the p-value is 0.
D) For every ounce of water consumed, the chickens produce 0.15 eggs, holding all other independent variables constant.

Accepted Answer

The coefficient for water is 0.15, indicating that for every ounce of water consumed, the chickens produce 0.15 eggs, holding all other independent variables constant. This suggests that water consumption is a significant predictor of egg production. The other answer choices are incorrect.

Question 10

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data? 
A) Eggs = 6.56 + .38Scratch + .17Pellets + .21Water
B) Eggs = 1.25 + .18Scratch + .29Pellets + .15Water
C) Eggs = 0.93 - .88Scratch + .37Pellets + .41Water
D) Eggs = 4.22 + .37Scratch + .67Pellets + .58Water

Accepted Answer

The answer of A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics...

Question 11

Multiple regression is used when the forecaster believes that more than one independent variable should be used to predict the variable of interest.

Accepted Answer

Multiple regression involves using multiple independent variables to predict a dependent variable.

Question 12

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data?
  He develops one equation based on three predictors,the scratch,pellets,and water,and another equation based only on the layer pellet consumption.The output for the two models are shown side by side.Comment on the two models and which one should be used.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics...

Question 13

Demand was low two years ago but increased sharply last year thanks to an aggressive marketing campaign.A time series model that puts the greatest emphasis on the most recent period is probably the best choice to predict next year's demand.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Demand was low two years ago but...

Question 14

Models that predict demand based upon some independent factor(s)other than time are ________ forecasting models.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Models that predict demand based upon some...

Question 15

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between layer pellets and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data? 
A) Eggs = 11.3 + 0.42Pellets
B) Eggs = 1.25 + 0.29Pellets
C) Eggs = 10.9 + 0.23Pellets
D) Eggs = 4.22 + 0.67Pellets

Accepted Answer

The answer of A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics...

Question 16

The tracking signal calculated for the first forecast is always either +1 or -1.

Accepted Answer

The tracking signal can be greater than +1 or less than -1, depending on the forecast error and the value of alpha used in the forecast method.

Question 17

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed,layer pellets and scratch,water,and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data?

Accepted Answer

The answer of A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics...

Question 18

A model with a positive mean forecast error suggests that,on average,the model underforecasts.

Accepted Answer

A positive mean forecast error indicates that the actual outcomes were consistently higher than the model's predictions, implying underforecasting.

Question 19

Which of these forecasts is the BEST?
A) the one with a MAD of zero
B) the one with the tracking signal of +4
C) the one with the tracking signal of -4
D) the one where the tracking signal times the MAD equals zero

Accepted Answer

A forecast with a MAD of zero indicates that the forecast perfectly matches the actual values, resulting in the most accurate forecast.

Question 20

Nora Damus reviews her forecasting triumphs and failures as part of her annual report to the Chief Operating Officer.She notes that her monthly forecast for batteries has a mean forecast error of 20,and a mean absolute deviation of 20.Which of the following statements about her forecast is BEST?
A) Nora has miscalculated her mean forecast error.
B) Nora has miscalculated her mean absolute deviation.
C) Nora has a negative tracking signal.
D) Nora has a positive tracking signal.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Nora Damus reviews her forecasting triumphs and...

Quiz 9: Forecasting

Using the data in the table,first plot the data and comment on the appearance of the demand pattern.Then develop a forecast for periods 51-70 that fits the data.

Which of these quantitative techniques is a causal model?

The forecast data matches the actual data perfectly if the mean absolute deviation is 0.0.

Multiple regression is used when the forecaster believes that more than one independent variable should be used to predict the variable of interest.

Demand was low two years ago but increased sharply last year thanks to an aggressive marketing campaign.A time series model that puts the greatest emphasis on the most recent period is probably the best choice to predict next year's demand.

Models that predict demand based upon some independent factor(s)other than time are ________ forecasting models.

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between layer pellets and the output of his laying hens.For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and the number of eggs that are produced.What is his regression equation based on the data?

The tracking signal calculated for the first forecast is always either +1 or -1.

A model with a positive mean forecast error suggests that,on average,the model underforecasts.

Which of these forecasts is the BEST?

Nora Damus reviews her forecasting triumphs and failures as part of her annual report to the Chief Operating Officer.She notes that her monthly forecast for batteries has a mean forecast error of 20,and a mean absolute deviation of 20.Which of the following statements about her forecast is BEST?