In one study experts made predictions of U.S. and world politics over the next several years. How accurate were their predictions, compared to the predictions the general public might make, and how confident were they in their predictions?

Question

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Studies, including those by Philip Tetlock, have shown that experts are often no more accurate than the general public in making predictions about political events, but they tend to be much more confident in their predictions.

In One Study Experts Made Predictions of U