Titus and Lauren are playing a coin-tossing game where each player tosses a fair coin 20 times consecutively.The winner of the game is the player who tosses the most consecutive tails.Titus decides to go first and tosses tails five times in a row.Their parents,Margaret and Remi,are observing the game and make the following observations before Titus attempts the sixth toss:

Margaret: The probability of Titus tossing tails has to be greater than 75 percent because he is on a roll!

Remi: No,Margaret,the probability of Titus tossing tails has to be less than 25 percent because he hasn't tossed heads in the last five tosses and he is due to toss heads!

A behavioral economist would conclude that Margaret's statement is an example of the ________ fallacy,and Remi's statement is an example of the ________ fallacy.
A) continuum; hot-hand
B) hot-hand; broken-window
C) gambler's; hot-hand
D) hot-hand; gambler's
E) behavior; broken-window

Question

Titus and Lauren are playing a coin-tossing game where each player tosses a fair coin 20 times consecutively.The winner of the game is the player who tosses the most consecutive tails.Titus decides to go first and tosses tails five times in a row.Their parents,Margaret and Remi,are observing the game and make the following observations before Titus attempts the sixth toss:

Margaret: The probability of Titus tossing tails has to be greater than 75 percent because he is on a roll!

Remi: No,Margaret,the probability of Titus tossing tails has to be less than 25 percent because he hasn't tossed heads in the last five tosses and he is due to toss heads!

A behavioral economist would conclude that Margaret's statement is an example of the ________ fallacy,and Remi's statement is an example of the ________ fallacy.
A) continuum; hot-hand
B) hot-hand; broken-window
C) gambler's; hot-hand
D) hot-hand; gambler's
E) behavior; broken-window

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Margaret's statement is an example of the gambler's fallacy, which assumes that because an event has occurred repeatedly, it is less likely to happen in the future. Remi's statement is an example of the hot-hand fallacy, which assumes that because an event has not occurred for a while, it is more likely to happen in the future. Therefore, the best choice is D, which correctly identifies both fallacies.

Titus and Lauren Are Playing a Coin-Tossing Game Where Each