Suppose a student tosses a fair coin consecutively seven times and gets tails each time.Which belief about the probability of getting tails on the next toss is NOT consistent with the hot-hand fallacy?
A) The probability of getting heads on the next toss is 4/5.
B) The probability of getting heads on the next toss is 5/6.
C) The probability of getting heads on the next toss is 6/10.
D) The probability of getting heads on the next toss is 9/10.
E) The probability of getting heads on the next toss is 1/2.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The hot-hand fallacy is the incorrect belief that a sequence of the same outcome increases the probability of that outcome occurring again. Choice E, stating the probability of getting heads on the next toss is 1/2, correctly reflects the true probability in a fair coin toss and does not adhere to the hot-hand fallacy. Each toss of a fair coin is independent, and the probability of getting heads (or tails) remains 1/2, regardless of previous outcomes.

Suppose a Student Tosses a Fair Coin Consecutively Seven Times