Instruction 14-19
Business Closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010

Instruction 14-19
Business closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 were:
$$\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline 2005 & 10 \\\hline 2005 & 11 \\\hline 2007 & 13 \\\hline 2008 & 19 \\\hline 2009 & 24 \\\hline 2010 & 35 \\\hline\end{array}$$ Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SIMMARY OUTIPU - Second-Order Mode
$\begin{array}{ll}&\text { Coefficients }\\\text { Intercept } & -5.77 \\\text { X Variable 1 } & 0.80 \\\text { X Variable 2 } & 1.14\end{array}$

SIMMARY OUTPUT - Fist-Order Model
$\begin{array}{ll}&\text { Coefficients }\\\text { Intercept } & -4.16 \\\text { X Variable 1 } & 1.59\end{array}$
-Referring to Instruction 14-19,the value of the MAD for the first-order autoregressive model is _______.