Question 1

The tendency to seek evidence that supports our hypotheses is known as _____.

Accepted Answer

The confirmation bias refers to our tendency to look for information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs and hypotheses. This can lead to a neglect of contradictory evidence and a reinforcement of our existing beliefs. Option A refers to our tendency to rely on examples that come to mind easily, Option C is our tendency to make judgments based on how well something matches our existing schema, and Option D is not a commonly recognized bias.

Question 2

A police detective continues to pursue the individual he feels is guilty of a robbery in the face of increasing evidence to the contrary. It is likely that the detective is experiencing _____.

Accepted Answer

Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to initial beliefs even when presented with contradicting evidence. In this scenario, the detective is persistently pursuing the individual he feels is guilty despite increasing evidence to the contrary, which is a characteristic of belief perseverance.

Question 3

Stan loves junk food and eats it every day in vast quantities. Stan's wife keeps telling him that research results show that he is killing himself with his diet, but Stan simply points to his grandfather who lived to be 92 and ate junk food most of his life. Stan is using _____ to justify his junk food eating behavior.

Accepted Answer

Person-who reasoning is the tendency to rely on anecdotes or personal experiences rather than scientific evidence. Stan is using his grandfather's experience to justify his own behavior, which is an example of person-who reasoning. Means-end analysis is a problem-solving strategy that involves breaking down a problem into smaller steps. Illusory correlation is the perception of a relationship between two variables that doesn't actually exist. While Stan may be exhibiting some illusory correlation in assuming that his grandfather's longevity is entirely due to his diet, this is not the most accurate description of his reasoning in this scenario.

Question 4

Donald argues vehemently that women drive more recklessly than men do despite his awareness of statistics from multiple sources that indicate his argument is not correct. Donald is MOST specifically demonstrating _____.

Accepted Answer

Donald is demonstrating belief perseverance, which is the tendency to cling on to one's initial beliefs and opinions even when presented with contradictory evidence. In this case, he is holding on to his belief that women drive recklessly despite being presented with statistics that prove otherwise.

Question 5

Dr. Huang knows that the base rate for a disease is 5 percent. Out of 1,000 people, this base rate indicates that _____ would have the disease. To test a patient, Dr. Huang will use a test that will correctly show that the disease is present in 80 percent of the people who actually have the disease. Thus, the _____ rate for the test is 80 percent.

Accepted Answer

The base rate of 5 percent indicates that out of 1,000 people, 5 percent, or 50 people, would have the disease. The test's ability to correctly identify those with the disease 80 percent of the time refers to its sensitivity.

Question 6

Questioning a well-established finding because you know an individual who violates the finding is to _____ as clinging to your viewpoints despite evidence to the contrary is to _____.

Accepted Answer

Questioning a well-established finding because of an individual case is known as "person-who reasoning," which involves exceptions to the rule. Clinging to viewpoints despite contrary evidence is "belief perseverance," where beliefs persist even when discredited.

Question 7

Because Tim is likely to notice when it rains after he washes his car, he believes there is a relationship between washing his car and the occurrence of rain. This perceived relationship BEST illustrates which of the following?

Accepted Answer

The perceived relationship between washing the car and rain is an example of an illusory correlation, which is a perceived relationship that does not actually exist. Tim is likely to pay more attention to when it rains after he washes his car, which reinforces his belief in the relationship. This is a cognitive bias in which a person sees patterns or connections between events that are actually unrelated.

Question 8

Because Janet is particularly likely to notice when the phone rings while she is in the shower, she believes that there is a relationship between taking a shower and receiving a phone call. This perceived relationship BEST illustrates _____.

Accepted Answer

An illusory correlation is the perception of a relationship between two variables that does not actually exist. In this case, Janet believes there is a relationship between taking a shower and receiving a phone call, but this may just be due to the fact that she is more likely to notice the phone ringing when she is in the shower.

Question 9

System 1 is to _____ as System 2 is to _____.

Accepted Answer

System 1 is associated with automatic, fast, and often unconscious thinking, while System 2 is reflective, slow, and deliberate.

Question 10

Dr. Barba, like most doctors, tends to _____ the probability that a person has a disease when a test result is positive. To accurately calculate this probability, one of the factors that Dr. Barba needs to know is the percentage of people in the population who actually have the disease, which is known as the _____ rate.

Accepted Answer

The correct answer is A) overestimate; base. Doctors often overestimate the likelihood of a disease when a test result is positive, partly due to not considering the base rate, or the actual prevalence of the disease in the population, which is crucial for accurately calculating the probability of having the disease.

Question 11

Greg believes that female drivers make more careless mistakes on the road than do male drivers, so he watches female drivers more closely than male drivers. Greg's behavior BEST illustrates _____.

Accepted Answer

Greg's behavior reflects confirmation bias, which is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms one's preexisting beliefs, attitudes, and values while ignoring or discounting information that contradicts them. By specifically watching female drivers more closely, Greg is more likely to notice and remember their mistakes and ignore the mistakes made by male drivers, thus confirming his belief that female drivers are more careless on the road.

Question 12

Miss Binder, a second-grade teacher, thinks that girls pass more notes in class than boys, so she watches the girls more closely than the boys. Miss Binder's behavior BEST illustrates which of the following?

Accepted Answer

Miss Binder's behavior is an example of confirmation bias, as she is seeking out information that confirms her preexisting belief about girls passing more notes in class than boys.

Question 13

What is the tendency to cling to one's beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence?

Accepted Answer

Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to one's initial beliefs even after receiving contradictory information. This can occur even when the evidence against the belief is strong and compelling.

Question 14

Suppose you are given the following problem: "There are four cards showing E, J, 2, & 5. On one side of each card is a letter, and on the other side is a number. Consider this rule: "If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an odd number on the other side." Select the card or cards that you definitely must turn over to determine whether the rule is true or false for the four cards indicated.

Accepted Answer

To test the rule, you must check if cards with vowels have odd numbers on the other side and ensure cards with even numbers do not have a vowel on the opposite side. Therefore, you need to turn over the E card (to see if there's an odd number) and the 2 card (to ensure there's no vowel on the other side).

Question 15

Imagine a base rate of 1 percent for a disease, a false positive rate of 10 percent, and a sensitivity rate of 90 percent for the screening test for the disease. Using natural frequencies, which of the following is the closest estimate of the conditional probability that a person actually has the disease given a positive test result?

Accepted Answer

Using natural frequencies, out of 1000 people, 10 will have the disease (1% base rate), and 9 of these will test positive (90% sensitivity). Out of 990 without the disease, 99 will test positive (10% false positive rate). Thus, the probability of having the disease given a positive test is 9/(9+99) = 9/108 ≈ 8.33%, closest to 8%.

Question 16

To determine if a relationship exists between eating spinach and being strong, in addition to considering the number of people who eat spinach and are strong, we also have to consider which of the following?

Accepted Answer

To accurately determine if a relationship exists between eating spinach and being strong, it's essential to consider all possible outcomes: those who eat spinach and are strong, those who eat spinach and are not strong, those who do not eat spinach and are strong, and those who do not eat spinach and are not strong. This comprehensive approach allows for a better understanding of the potential correlation.

Question 17

The errors made when trying to determine the rule for Wason's "2-4-6 task" BEST illustrate _____.

Accepted Answer

The errors made in Wason's "2-4-6 task" best illustrate the confirmation bias, as individuals tend to only seek out information that confirms their preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, rather than trying to disprove them.

Question 18

In the British researcher Peter Wason's "2-4-6 task," Zach thought the rule was "numbers under 10 that increased by 2." To attempt to disconfirm this hypothesis, which sequence(s) should he test?

Accepted Answer

The 2-4-6 task is designed to test the ability to disconfirm hypotheses. Testing sequences that do not fit the initial hypothesis, such as 8-10-12 or 4-7-9, which do not strictly adhere to "numbers under 10 that increase by 2," would be effective in attempting to disconfirm Zach's hypothesis.

Question 19

What is the tendency to erroneously believe that two variables are related when they actually are not?

Accepted Answer

The tendency to erroneously believe that two variables are related when they actually are not is called illusory correlation. Option A, correlation bias, refers to the tendency to overemphasize the importance of a correlation between two variables. Option B, belief bias, refers to how people are more likely to accept information that agrees with their preexisting beliefs. Option C, belief perseverance, refers to how people continue to hold onto their beliefs even after they have been proven wrong.

Question 20

Despite his awareness of scientific evidence indicating fortunetellers are unable to forecast the future, Justin believes they can. He bases his belief on the fact that his friend Ronnie won $100 after a fortune teller told Ronnie that something good would happen to him. Justin is experiencing _____ resulting from _____.

Accepted Answer

Justin is experiencing belief perseverance because he continues to believe in fortunetellers despite evidence to the contrary. He is engaging in person-who reasoning because he is basing his belief on the experience of one person (his friend Ronnie) rather than considering scientific evidence.

Quiz 6: Section 2: Thinking and Intelligence