Consider the quarterly production data (in thousands of units)for the XYZ manufacturing company below.The normalized (adjusted)seasonal factors are .9982,.9263,1.139,.9365 for winter,spring,summer and fall respectively. Based on the following deseasonalized observations (dt)given below,a trend line was estimated.The linear regression trend equation is: trt = 10.1 + 1.91 (t).Based on this trend equation,the following trend values are calculated for each period in the time series:
Isolate the cyclical and irregular components by calculating the estimate of CLt* IRt for the first four quarters in the time series.
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