A large automobile parts supplier, keeps track of the demand for a particular part needed by its customers, automobile manufacturers. The time series plot below shows monthly demand for this part (in thousands) for a five year period. a. Identify the dominant time series component (s) in the data.
b. Suppose that the single exponential smoothing (SES) model was applied to these data. Below are time series graphs showing SES results using two different smoothing constants (α = 0.2 and α = 0.8). In which application is a larger value of α used?
I. ii. c. What forecasting method may be a better choice than SES for these data? Explain.

Question

A large automobile parts supplier, keeps track of the demand for a particular part needed by its customers, automobile manufacturers. The time series plot below shows monthly demand for this part (in thousands) for a five year period.  a. Identify the dominant time series component (s) in the data.
b. Suppose that the single exponential smoothing (SES) model was applied to these data. Below are time series graphs showing SES results using two different smoothing constants (α = 0.2 and α = 0.8). In which application is a larger value of α used?
I.  ii.  c. What forecasting method may be a better choice than SES for these data? Explain.

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The Answer of A large automobile parts supplier, keeps track of the demand for a particular part needed by its customers, automobile manufacturers. The time series plot below shows monthly demand for this part (in thousands) for a five year period.  a. Identify the dominant time series component (s) in the data.
b. Suppose that the single exponential smoothing (SES) model was applied to these data. Below are time series graphs showing SES results using two different smoothing constants (α = 0.2 and α = 0.8). In which application is a larger value of α used?
I.  ii.  c. What forecasting method may be a better choice than SES for these data? Explain.

A Large Automobile Parts Supplier, Keeps Track of the Demand